Key takeaways: Goldman Sachs CEO predicts 10-20% market drawdown within 2 years. Bank of England's Bailey explicitly calls it an "AI bubble." AI stocks average 78x forward P/E (dot-com peak was 62x). Insiders sold $18.7B in Q3 2025 - highest on record. High-risk stocks like C3.ai and Palantir face 70-90% downside; safer bets like Microsoft and Google may see 15-25% corrections.
Wall Street is officially freaking out about AI stocks. On November 7, 2025, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon dropped a bombshell: "I think a 10-20% equity market drawdown is likely within the next two years."
When Central Banks Say 'Bubble,' Pay Attention
The Bank of England just became the first major central banker to use that exact language.
The Bank of England's Andrew Bailey just explicitly called it an "AI bubble" - the first major central banker to use that exact language.
Bailey's Exact Quote
"Valuations in AI-exposed equities have reached levels inconsistent with historical precedent and underlying cash flow generation."
Translation: These stocks are ridiculously overpriced and everyone knows it.
The Seven Red Flags Screaming 'Sell'
Warning signs that experienced investors recognize from previous bubbles.
1. Retail investors back to dot-com levels
31% of AI trading is retail, 42% of Robinhood portfolios are in AI stocks.
2. Valuations are unhinged
AI stocks average 78x forward P/E (dot-com peak was 62x).
3. AI Washing everywhere
400 companies mentioned AI in earnings, only 23 disclosed AI revenue.
4. Insiders dumping stock
$18.7B sold in Q3 2025 (highest on record), Jensen Huang sold $1.1B NVIDIA.
5. Junk companies up the most
C3.ai, Palantir trade at 90x P/E with negative earnings, up 200%+.
6. Options market shows complacency
Put/call ratios at historic lows.
7. Credit markets cracking
73% of AI debt is covenant-lite, credit default swaps spiking.
The Stocks That Will Get Destroyed
Risk assessment by stock category with estimated downside potential.
Risk Assessment by Stock
| Risk Level | Stocks | Downside |
|---|---|---|
| Extreme Risk | C3.ai, Palantir, SoundHound AI | 70-90% |
| High Risk | AMD, Super Micro, Tesla AI premium | 50-70% |
| Moderate Risk | NVIDIA, Snowflake | 30-50% |
| Safer Bets | Microsoft, Google, Amazon | 15-25% |
NVIDIA Reality Check
NVIDIA is real - 78% of revenue is actually AI - but at 42x forward P/E, even the good ones are bubble-priced. Fair value is probably $90-110 vs current $128.
What Actually Works Right Now
A practical 5-step protection strategy for your portfolio.
5-Step Protection Strategy
- 1Sell half of speculative positions (C3.ai, Palantir) - don't time the bottom
- 2Rotate into infrastructure: Vertiv (cooling), Legrand (electrical), Schneider Electric
- 3Buy puts as insurance: $120 NVIDIA puts cost 4% for protection
- 4Watch insider Form 4 filings - multiple executives selling is a warning
- 5Keep cash for the dip - Microsoft and Google will be down 25-30%
What Probably Happens
A timeline of expected market events based on historical patterns.
Q1 2026: Earnings disappointments, analyst downgrades, panic selling
Q2-Q3 2026: Capitulation - margin calls, forced liquidation, the real crisis
Q4 2026-2027: Survivors emerge, prices stabilize
2028+: The winners (Microsoft, Google, infrastructure) actually make money
The Bottom Line
The math simply doesn't work at current valuations.
Goldman Sachs and the Bank of England are warning about a crash because the data clearly shows a bubble. $15 trillion in AI market cap, but AI only represents about 15% of actual earnings. That math doesn't work.
This is like dot-com 2.0, except the good companies (Microsoft, Google, infrastructure) will survive and thrive. The pretenders will go to zero.
The Only Question That Matters
Do you own unprofitable AI stocks trading above 30x sales? If yes, sell half today.
The question isn't whether this corrects. It's whether you're ready for it.
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